Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.4pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
4% / 6%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283344
This event has 20 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-10.1%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this