Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.8pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
11% / 12%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1280889
This event has 20 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this