Markets/Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:46 PM UTC

Closes April 28, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+17.6pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+17.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+17.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 28, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1288108

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