Markets/Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?

Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:37 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

16%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$475

Bid / Ask

11% / 21%

Spread

10.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 84¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1295979