Markets/OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 10:24 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

65%YES

36%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

63% / 66%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

65%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

57% YES — lowest in period

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

66% → 57%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

65% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 65%99%

Buy YES@ 65¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 36¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 65%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1298648