Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$2K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
33% / 43%
Spread
10.00pp
Expert Signal
27%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
56% YES
Mar 16, 2026
Trough probability
26% YES — lowest in period
Mar 22, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 17, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
28%
Mar 22, 2026
Biggest move: -27.0pp
56% → 28%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
27% YES (+0.5pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.9%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?" at 27% YES / 73% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Anduril Industries IPO before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 27%, NO 73%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1321865
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Venue Divergence
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