Markets/Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:19 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

40%YES

61%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

39% / 40%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

40%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-19.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

32% YES — lowest in period

Mar 12, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

45%

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: -33.5pp

70% → 36%

Mar 10, 2026

Peak probability

71% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

38% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 40%99%

Buy YES@ 40¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 61¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?" at 40% YES / 60% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 40%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 40%, NO 60%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1334671