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Markets/Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

39%YES
61%NO
Vol 24h$150
Liquidity$16K
Bid / Ask33% / 44%
Spread11.00pp
ClosesOct 4, 2026

FM Estimate

37%

Market Price

39%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-3.1pp
Historical patterns-1.0pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets16 markets

This event has 16 active outcome markets. Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 40%, less: 39%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.

Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round
40%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20

39%
Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round o
34%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
22%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the
22%
Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of
8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first rou
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
3%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in third place in the
2%
Tarcisio de Freitas finish in third place in the first
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first r
1%
Jair Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round
1%
Geraldo Alckmin finish in third place in the first roun
1%
Aldo Rebelo finish in third place in the first round of
0%
Eduardo Leite finish in third place in the first round
0%

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $150 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-18). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366007