Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
FM Estimate
21%Market Price
23%This event has 16 active outcome markets. Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 40%, less: 39%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?" at 23% YES / 77% NO. In the last 24 hours, $155 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 23%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 23%, NO 77%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366008