Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
FM Estimate
4%Market Price
6%This event has 16 active outcome markets. Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the f: 40%, less: 39%, Renan Santos finish in third place in the fir: 34%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 20
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $81 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 5.70pp. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-16). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366010