Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$30
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
6% / 16%
Spread
10.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 10.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1395460
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