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Market Closed

This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?
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Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

18%YES
82%NO
Vol 24h$2K
Liquidity$15K
Bid / Ask17% / 18%
Spread1.00pp
ClosedDec 31, 2025

FM Estimate

16%

Market Price

18%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-4.1pp
Historical patterns-0.4pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 81%, June 30: 48%, June 30, 2026: 18%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

+1.5pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2025.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1397269