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This market has resolved. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?
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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

6%YES
94%NO
Vol 24h$3K
Liquidity$11K
Bid / Ask5% / 6%
Spread1.00pp
ClosedMar 31, 2026

FM Estimate

4%

Market Price

6%
↑ Overpriced 1.9pp
Macro fundamentals-4.1pp
Historical patterns-0.4pp
low confidence · 2 signals

Wikipedia Attention

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 81%, June 30: 48%, June 30, 2026: 18%.

Price History · 30 days

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Price History

MarketFM Estimate
+0.0pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-20). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1397301