Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Market Price
FM Estimate
low confidence · 2 signals
Wikipedia Attention
This event has 4 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 81%, June 30: 48%, June 30, 2026: 18%.
Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Price History · 30 days
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✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?" at 81% YES / 19% NO. In the last 24 hours, $915 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00pp. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-22). "Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 81%, NO 19%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677366