Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 05:37 PM UTC

Closes May 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+13.6pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-5.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

8% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Biggest move: -7.5pp

13% → 6%

Mar 8, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.2%

½ Kelly1.6%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on May 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1423717