Markets/Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:55 PM UTC

Polymarket Price

9%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$67K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

8% / 9%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-62.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

71% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

9% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 1, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

57%

Mar 2, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

46%

Mar 4, 2026

Biggest move: -31.5pp

63% → 32%

Mar 4, 2026

Current

9% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

Edge

+5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $67K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472019