Markets/Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:21 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$380K

Liquidity

$91K

Bid / Ask

16% / 17%

Spread

1.00pp

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

32% YES

Mar 1, 2026

Trough probability

13% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 4, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 5, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

52%

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: +29.5pp

24% → 53%

Mar 4, 2026

Peak probability

53% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

18% YES (+2.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 83¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $380K has been traded. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1473066

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