Markets/Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:08 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

65%YES

36%NO

Volume 24h

$99K

Liquidity

$79K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 65%99%

Buy YES@ 65¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 36¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?" at 65% YES / 35% NO. In the last 24 hours, $99K has been traded. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 65%, NO 35%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1484915

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