Markets/Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?

Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:02 AM UTC

Closes May 25, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

10%YES

90%NO

Volume 24h

$30

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

14% / 15%

Spread

1.50pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $30 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.50 percentage points. The market closes on May 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 3%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500005

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