Markets/Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

Closes May 25, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

20% / 23%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500008

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