Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Closes April 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$404K
Liquidity
$1.1M
Bid / Ask
11% / 12%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
April
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
11% YES — lowest in period
Mar 12, 2026
Biggest move: -7.5pp
26% → 19%
Mar 6, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $404K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1507751
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.