Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$358
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
1.60pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
2027
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-13.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $358 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1509641
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