Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$8K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
15% / 19%
Spread
3.50pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
2027
24 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
19% YES
Mar 21, 2026
Trough probability
8% YES — lowest in period
Mar 26, 2026
Biggest move: -7.8pp
19% → 11%
Mar 22, 2026
Current
17% YES (-0.3pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 3.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1509658
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.