Markets/Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

Closes January 1, 2027

Polymarket Price

66%YES

34%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

64% / 69%

Spread

4.90pp

Expert Signal

66%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-14.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

98% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Trough probability

80% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -10.2pp

98% → 88%

Mar 11, 2026

Current

84% YES (+0.6pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 66%99%

Buy YES@ 66¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 34¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?" at 66% YES / 34% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 66%. The bid-ask spread is 4.90 percentage points. The market closes on January 1, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 66%, NO 34%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1535123