Markets/Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 11:36 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

91%YES

10%NO

Volume 24h

$16K

Liquidity

$35K

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 91%99%

Buy YES@ 91¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.3%

½ Kelly2.6%

Buy NO@ 9¢

-5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551490

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