Markets/Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?

Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:57 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

25%YES

75%NO

Volume 24h

$727

Liquidity

$132

Bid / Ask

2% / 50%

Spread

48.40pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 25%99%

Buy YES@ 25¢

-1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 75¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.4%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $727 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 48.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551565

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