Markets/Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?

Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:57 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$76

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

4% / 8%

Spread

4.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

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Order Book (YES)

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Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

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Buy NO@ 94¢

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EV per $ wagered

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EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

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50%

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Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $76 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Military action against Iran ends by March 28, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1551570

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