Markets/Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 09:09 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$21K

Bid / Ask

7% / 10%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Trough probability

8% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Biggest move: +5.8pp

14% → 20%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

22% YES — highest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

12% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

-3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 92¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.0%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1552201