Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$5K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
29% / 32%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
31%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the…
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?" at 31% YES / 69% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 31%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 31%, NO 69%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1578760
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