Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
4% / 7%
Spread
2.20pp
Expert Signal
5%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
42% YES
Mar 5, 2026
Trough probability
3% YES — lowest in period
Mar 9, 2026
Biggest move: -26.0pp
35% → 9%
Mar 6, 2026
Current
3% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503863
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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