Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Closes June 30, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$15K
Liquidity
$226K
Bid / Ask
16% / 17%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
17%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
March 2026
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
20% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Current
22% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 12, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $15K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1171663
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