Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
Closed December 31, 2025
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$22K
Liquidity
$43K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.60pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
March 2026
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+25.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $22K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006892
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Venue Divergence
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