Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?
Closes April 12, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$210
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
14% / 15%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Mar 15, 2026
Trough probability
5% YES — lowest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: -5.0pp
10% → 5%
Mar 16, 2026
Current
6% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 16, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.4%
EV per $ wagered
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $210 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1503858
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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