Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
Closes March 27, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$18K
Liquidity
$37K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
0.40pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Biggest move: -7.0pp
17% → 10%
Mar 17, 2026
Current
1% YES (-0.7pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+25.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $18K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.40 percentage points. The market closes on March 27, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1623275
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