Markets/Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela

Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 02:04 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

0%YES

100%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-66.9pp

Key Moments

First recorded

67% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Trough probability

0% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

28%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -33.0pp

61% → 28%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

0% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela" at 0% YES / 100% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1627456

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