Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Closed October 31, 2025
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
41% / 44%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by…
March
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 31, 2025.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1642010
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