Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$138
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
2% / 13%
Spread
11.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+6.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $138 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 11.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Mesías Guevara finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656083
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.