Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$95
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
42% / 43%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
43%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.9%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 43%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1656637
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