Markets/Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 12:55 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-25.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

31% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Trough probability

2% YES — lowest in period

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -17.0pp

31% → 14%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.3pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.9%

½ Kelly1.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1663416