Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)
Closes March 29, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$2K
Bid / Ask
9% / 13%
Spread
3.90pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Trump say "Ethanol" this week? (March 29)
March
8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
8% YES (-1.5pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 3.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1665150
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