Markets/Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 04:22 PM UTC

Closes March 25, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

2% / 2%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-17.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

20% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -8.5pp

12% → 3%

Mar 24, 2026

Current

2% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%

½ Kelly3.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 25, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1672921