ForecastMind

Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Celtics (-9.5)
Share on X

Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

Closed March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES
62%NO

Volume 24h

$840K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

40% / 42%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Celtics (-9.5)

Full event →

4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-10.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

53% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

42%

Mar 23, 2026

Biggest move: -11.5pp

54% → 42%

Mar 23, 2026

Current

42% YES (-11.5pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 38%99%
Buy YES@ 38¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 62¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Celtics (-9.5)" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $840K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Spread: Celtics (-9.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1677311