Markets/Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:16 PM UTC

Closes March 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES

44%NO

Volume 24h

$216K

Liquidity

$74K

Bid / Ask

53% / 55%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

54%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Full event →

Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

57%

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

54%

Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

49%

3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+3.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

51% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Current

54% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 56%99%

Buy YES@ 56¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 44¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Raptors (-2.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $216K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 54%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: Raptors (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1680116

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