Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)
Closed March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$87K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
47% / 48%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
47%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
45% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Current
47% YES (+2.5pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-2.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $87K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1684311
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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