Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
Closed March 23, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$532K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
87% / 92%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
77%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Trough probability
42% YES — lowest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
49%
Mar 23, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
70%
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: +28.5pp
42% → 70%
Mar 24, 2026
Current
70% YES (+28.5pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Spurs (-5.5)" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $532K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Spread: Spurs (-5.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1686698
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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Full price history for your own analysis.