Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)
Closed March 23, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1.6M
Liquidity
$24K
Bid / Ask
54% / 55%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
63%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Spread: Hawks (-13.5)
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
54% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Trough probability
48% YES — lowest in period
Mar 23, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
48%
Mar 23, 2026
Biggest move: -6.0pp
54% → 48%
Mar 23, 2026
Current
56% YES (+5.0pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-13.5)" at 79% YES / 21% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1.6M has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 23, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Spread: Hawks (-13.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 79%, NO 21%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1687485
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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