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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Magic (-16.5)

Share on X

Spread: Magic (-16.5)

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 12:17 AM UTC

Closed March 26, 2026

Polymarket Price

38%YES

63%NO

Volume 24h

$175K

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

36% / 39%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-18.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

47% YES

Mar 26, 2026

Biggest move: -16.0pp

45% → 29%

Mar 27, 2026

Current

29% YES (-16.0pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 38%99%

Buy YES@ 38¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 63¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-16.5)" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $175K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 26, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Spread: Magic (-16.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1698375

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