Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.5pp above current market price; market at 84% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +1.5% ↑, VIX +1.9% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
80% / 84%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
84%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?" at 84% YES / 16% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 84%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 84%, NO 16%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706352
This event has 40 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, June 30, 2026: 94%, May 31, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 11, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-3.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this