Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Closed March 31, 2026
ForecastMind sees this +1.8pp above current market price; market at 92% may be underpriced with macro signals showing Oil +2.0% ↑, VIX +2.0% ↑, Gold +0.4% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$11K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
91% / 94%
Spread
3.20pp
Expert Signal
92%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $11K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 92%. The bid-ask spread is 3.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-09). "Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1718696
This event has 42 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 95%, April 28, 2026: 94%, June 30, 2026: 93%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-1.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this