Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?
Closes April 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 95% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.4% ↓, VIX -7.4% ↓, Gold +0.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
99% / 99%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
95%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?" at 94% YES / 6% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 95%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 94%, NO 6%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1706355
This event has 48 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 99%, April 30, 2026: 99%, June 30, 2026: 99%.
Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
97% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
99% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Apr 11, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
-7.7%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this